Two neighboring GEOs can have similar audiences but completely different operating conditions.

Purchasing power, regulation, local payment infrastructure, advertising platform policies, funnel specifics, and even how well the product is prepared for the local market can all affect the outcome.

That's why at Toba Traffic, we believe it makes more sense to assess a new GEO not by a single metric, but through a combination of market, operational, and technical factors.

How large is the potential audience?

Population size is just the first number.

When assessing a market, it's more important to understand the size of the relevant digital audience, which devices people use, how actively they engage with online services, and whether their purchasing power aligns with the product's economics.

That's why two large markets can have completely different potential for the same product.

How much purchasing power does the audience have?

A cheap first interaction doesn't necessarily mean good economics.

A market needs to be evaluated further down the funnel: how many users reach the target action, how new cohorts behave, what the average transaction value is, and how much long-term value they generate.

That's why a single top-level metric almost never provides the full picture when comparing GEOs.

How significantly does regulation affect GEO economics?

For regulated verticals, the impact can be substantial.

For example, in the UK, Remote Gaming Duty for remote gaming increased from 21% to 40% of the operator's profits on April 1, 2026. This is officially documented by HM Revenue & Customs.

Brazil follows a different model. Since January 1, 2025, only operators authorized by the Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas have been permitted to operate at the federal level, and their domains must use the .bet.br extension. Brazil's Ministry of Finance maintains a public register of authorized companies.

In July 2026, Brazil also tightened its advertising requirements. Mandatory risk warnings were introduced for relevant advertising materials, and responsibility was extended to participants involved in advertising communications.

This is a good example of why GEO assessment needs to go beyond media costs. Regulation can change the product, communication strategy, and operating model before the launch even begins.

Is the product ready for local regulations?

Regulatory requirements often directly affect the user flow.

In Brazil, for example, users must complete authentication, including biometric verification in certain scenarios. The system also verifies the user's location before the first transaction and subsequently at specified intervals.

Credit cards and the provision of credit for betting are prohibited under the regulated model. The Ministry of Finance explicitly states that prepaid mechanisms are permitted, but post-paid credit is not.

Therefore, before assessing a market's marketing potential, it's important to check whether the product itself is technically and legally ready to meet local requirements.

How are people accustomed to paying?

The payment flow can significantly affect final conversion rates.

It's important to check not only whether payment methods are available, but also whether they comply with local regulations, whether the product supports payment methods familiar to the market, and whether additional steps create friction.

In Brazil, for example, payments in the regulated sector must be made between identified accounts belonging to the user and the operator. Transfers from unregistered accounts must be returned.

In June 2026, the Central Bank of Brazil also approved rules for blocking accounts and financial transactions involving companies operating without the required authorization.

In other words, payment infrastructure is part of market readiness, not a separate issue to address after launch.

How much localization does the product require?

Translating the interface is only the starting point.

A new market may require a different onboarding structure, localized legal notices, different payment logic, adapted customer support, and a separate communication approach.

Before entering a new GEO, it's worth checking:

• Language and local wording;

• Payment flow;

• KYC and verification;

• Legal and compliance requirements;

• Customer support;

• Onboarding structure;

• Local communication restrictions.

The more changes required, the higher the actual cost of entering the GEO.

Do advertising platforms allow you to operate in this market?

Platform policies also change.

For example, in March 2026, Google tightened its certification requirements for gambling and games categories. As of September 14, 2026, these requirements were extended to all categories covered by the relevant policy: the domain must be directly owned and controlled by the company, and repeated violations may affect eligibility for certification.

That's why the availability of advertising tools needs to be checked immediately before launch rather than relying on policies from six months ago.

Is the technical infrastructure ready?

Entering a new GEO increases the workload beyond the marketing team.

Before launch, it's important to check:

• Accurate transmission of conversion events;

• Server-side tracking;

• CRM and analytics;

• Attribution;

• KYC;

• Payment integrations;

• Landing flow localization;

• Data quality across the entire funnel.

If the team can only see the first stages of the customer journey, assessing the real quality of a new market will be difficult.

How much does entering a new GEO actually cost?

There is no universal figure.

The actual cost includes much more than the media budget. It may also involve:

• Product localization;

• Legal preparation;

• Licensing or authorization;

• Payment integrations;

• Compliance;

• Technical adaptation;

• Analytics;

• Customer support;

• User flow testing.

That's why a GEO with cheaper media isn't necessarily a cheaper market for the business overall.

Which metrics should you compare across GEOs?

You need to compare the entire market economics, not just one number.

At Toba Traffic, we look at a combination of factors:

• Size of the relevant audience;

• Acquisition cost;

• Conversion rates at key funnel stages;

• Average user value;

• Retention and LTV;

• Compliance complexity;

• Localization costs;

• Technical readiness;

• Scalability potential.

This allows us to compare GEOs based on their business potential rather than just the cost of the first interaction.

So which GEO should you analyze first?

There is no universal answer.

For one product, the deciding factor may be a large potential traffic volume. For another, it may be the audience's high long-term value. For a third, regulatory costs or the complexity of local infrastructure may be critical.

That's why at Toba Traffic, we start with one question:

Does this particular market align with the business's economics, product, and operational capabilities?

Only then does it make sense to decide whether to move on to the next stage of assessment.